bazaaredge.com Stock Market Outlook 30Aug11

Nifty price and momentum reverse in tandem, bounce till 5,100-5,200 more likely, 4,820-4,850 remains immediate supports. Bank Nifty completes our targets and recovers smartly, expect pullback targets in the region of 9,750-10,000, 9,200 remains immediate support,``

 

The indices have closed at the upper end of the intraday range as the bulls were able to offer support at higher levels during the session. The intraday range specified for the Nifty between the 4850 / 4675 was overcome on the upside as the Nifty tested the 4934 levels, thereby exceeding our intraday counts on the upside. The coming session is likely to witness resistance at the 5000 levels on advances above which the secondary target would be 5050 levels. Support is likely at the 4850 levels. The bullish pivot for the session is likely at the 4895 levels above which the Nifty must stay throughout the session. The bearish pivot is at the 4850 levels below which declines may occur. Traders must watch these levels for signs of trend determination in the coming session.

 

The daily candle chart of the Nifty shows a large bodied bullish candle, indicating the 4720 being now made swing low below which longs cannot be held. The anticipated pullback rally did arrive as indicated yesterday, though the magnitude was above our expectations. The the rally was achieved on lower volumes (partly attributed to a gap up open) which must change if the upthrust is sustain. Staying above the 4895 level with higher volumes and open interest will see the bulls getting a chance to markets higher intraday. The Nifty sustaining below the 4850 levels may trigger a fresh bout of declines.

 

``BSE IT momentum picks up, expect a bounce till 55 DEMA around 5,500. DJIA prices breakout of a triangular consolidation, maintain targets at 11,800-12,000,`` he added.

 

``Gold medium term supports around USD 1,700 hold on, prices reverse and should retest high around 1,911.``

 

``ICICI Bank, SBI, Bank Nifty, RIL, L&T, Infosys, TCS, Renuka Sugar are looking positive for short term. However, BSE Healthcare (stop 6000 closing basis), Aurobindo Pharma (stop 131), ITC looks negative.

 

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Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

 

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bazaaredge.com Stock Market Outlook 29Aug11

For the upcoming sessions, we believe sentiments remain gloomy though we think 4,680-4,700 could be the materialistic support at current juncture. Any drift below this level may further spoils the sentiment and we might see 4,500-4,530 level in the short term where possibility of bounce back couldn`t be rule out,`` said the broking house Mansukh. Further, the broking house said the following:

 

On the flip side any positive e outcome from global markets may boost the traders sentiments and we might see 5,060-5,070 level in remaining sessions of the series though any rallies could be use to exit from long positions rather creating any fresh ones.

 

The 30 scrip sensitive index- Sensex-on BSE after piercing through the 16,200 mark in early deals settled sub 16,000, offloading over 300 points- its lowest in 15 months. Meanwhile, the 50 share index on NSE-Nifty-tanking close to 100 points settled sub 4,800 mark- it`s lowest since 18 months.

 

The broader indices too went home with grave loss of over 2%. The market breadth on the BSE ended negative; advances and declining stocks were in a ratio of 740:2103 while 133 scrips remained unchanged.

 

The indices have closed at the lower end of the intraday range as the bulls were unable to offer support at higher levels during the session. The intraday range specified for the Nifty between the 4900 / 4700 has held as the Nifty bounced from 4720 levels, thereby validating our intraday counts. The coming session is likely to witness resistance at the 4850 levels on advances. Support is likely at the 4675 levels below which the 4650 maybe tested. The bullish pivot for the session is likely at the 4800 levels above which the Nifty must stay throughout the session. The bearish pivot is at the 4775 levels below which declines may occur. Traders must watch these levels for signs of trend determination in the coming session.

 

The daily candle chart of the Nifty shows a larger bodied bearish candle, indicating the market forces found equilibrium on the downside on Friday. Being a weekend session loaded with a major news trigger (Fed announcement), the market players were expected to avoid very large bullish bets. The indices have declined for 5 weeks consecutively (5 is a Fibonacci number), indicating a probable pullback this week. Staying above the 4800 level with higher volumes and open interest will see the bulls getting a chance to come back intraday. The Nifty sustaining below the 4775 levels may trigger a fresh bout of declines.

 

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Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

 

 

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bazaaredge.com Weekly Market Outlook 29Aug11

 

 

``So will things improve from here on or are we headed for lower levels on the key indices?

It`s a tough call to make having seen the deep cuts of August. Markets are waiting with

bated breadth as to what Bernanke will say at Friday`s Jackson Hole meet. The short-term

outlook continues to be murky owing to a multitude of problems - both domestic as well as

overseas. Plus, we have to contend with the ongoing political stalemate over the Lokpal

Bill. Don`t get trapped in any relief rally as the sentiment remains precarious.``

 

 

 

``Nifty has tested the lower support level of 4,720-4,700. The intermediate term trend

continues to be bearish. Whether this level will be breeched is still to be seen but the

uncertain local as well as global developments continue to cast a shadow on the stock

market. FOMC meeting on QE3 is due tonight and its outcome is likely to influence the market

trend in short term.``

 

 

 

``A much awaited event today is the Fed Chairman, Bernanke`s speech on the US economy. The

meeting has been much anticipated as in the previous year Mr. Bernanke had launched the QE2

programme from the same venue. Economic recovery has still remained soft, thereby triggering

expectations of another stimulus package in the form of QE3. As far as today`s selloff is

concerned, it is likely that market participants may have decided to reduce their positions

ahead of this event. On the domestic front, the government’s entire focus is on the Lokpal

bill. Markets are equally concerned over the developing political situation.

 

For the next week, Indian equities would take cues from the outcome of the Fed speech on

Friday. The deadlock between Govt. and Team Anna has also kept markets nervous. Any

resolution in on the political front could come as a respite for the markets.`` 

 

 

 

``The volatility in the Indian markets would continue to stay as inflation still remain high

and is even likely to surprise on a higher side and there is a fear that RBI would continue

with its monetary stance.``

 

 

 

``Nifty today came down heavily in the afternoon below the crucial levels of 4,786 and 4,766

due to lack of positive triggers and is looking at next support of 4,660 levels.  It is

suspected that the investors, who have rolled over their long positions from August series

to September series might have exited the positions due to heavy sell off which has further

ignited the selling pressure. Lack of participation from FII and DII also kept the market

under nervous. The resistance is there at 4,850 and 4,915 levels and we may see markets

moving towards these levels if the Federal Reserve’s decision is favorable to the markets

and vice versa.``

 

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Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

 

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bazaaredge.com stock market outlook 26Aug11

Indian equity benchmark remained volatile throughout the session due to F&O expiry, favoring bears for almost the entire day despite positive global cues. It opened gap up at 4,914.65 levels up almost 26 points from the previous close. It made a high near the open at 4,915.85 and could not hold on its early gains and then fell to make the low for the day at 4,825.05. It closed at 4,839.60 or down 1.01%

 

For the coming session, 4,800 is the immediate support for Nifty and if this is broken, next support is seen at 4,770/4,730. On higher levels, 4,870 is the immediate resistance for it and any gains above these levels are likely to face stiff resistance at 4,910/4,960. Traders are advised to trade in small quantities and with a strict stop-loss

 

The indices have closed at the lower end of the intraday range as the bulls were unable to offer support at higher levels during the session. The intraday range specified for the Nifty between the 4950 / 4825 has held as the Nifty bounced exactly from 4825 levels, thereby validating our intraday counts. The coming session is likely to witness resistance at the 4900 levels on advances. Support is likely at the 4775 levels below which the 4700 maybe tested. The bullish pivot for the session is likely at the 4885 levels above which the Nifty must stay throughout the session. The bearish pivot is at the 4850 levels below which declines may occur. Traders must watch these levels for signs of trend determination in the coming session.

 

The daily candle chart of the Nifty shows a larger bodied bearish candle after an inside day, indicating that the market forces found equilibrium on the downside. Being a weekend session loaded with a major news trigger (Fed announcement), the market players are unlikely to make very large bullish bets. Staying above the 4885 level with higher volumes and open interest will see the bulls getting a chance to come back. The Nifty sustaining below the 4850 levels may trigger a fresh bout of declines.

 

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Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

 

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bazaaredge.com Market Outlook 23Aug11

Some hopes were raised when the index failed to tip the Friday lows. It then proceeded to move higher, creating a minor- very minor- pattern of up moves on the 5 minute chart of the NF. Can we count on this to build more ahead? Look what we have all been reduced to Hoping and praying for the market to revive That is what bearish phase does to you. Of course one should not build hopes on such tenuous signals- it would be absurd. Like we have written earlier, the market is at an oversold stage and a rally is not at all out of the ordinary. But is it a buy signal? Most definitely not. There is a need to address risk in trading and not keep thinking about rewards. No doubt the one who picks the bottom gets most amount of the profits. But bottom pickers also get their bottoms whacked many times by the market!! In the end, it is not worth it.

 

Reliance rising, mild rally in metals and a few other sectors, expectations that the US markets may be better on possibilities of a QE3 being announced soon, lack of weakness in Europe despite Germany`s unwillingness to go ahead with the Eurobond issue etc all played a collective role in producing a mild rally. Short covering helped of course. We have almost moved into the last gap zone. Continuation could see the index move towards 4,995 where the next resistance lies. This is also near the weekly pivot around 4,975. So that is the zone for a rally to exhaust. If the trend remains down, then a 2-day rally is par for the course. Of course, something fizzling out right here would be bad news. Reliance looks good for 785 so that is a positive for continuation. Rolls are on and will also be helped by a better trend as it will encourage long holders to roll ahead. Nifty roll spread is about 4-5 points. If this shrinks to near 0, then we may see some upward momentum emerge. So keep watching the spread today. If spread widens, then the opposite will happen.

 

Strategy for the day:

 

Look for some continuation upward today also as a minor rally has been set off. Fizzling out of this rally early in the day would be bad news that may need to be actioned with fresh shorts. But if rally continues, then it would be a bit stock specific and one may have to approach with some caution. Not yet time to be adventurous. On a positional basis, as of now, we are waiting to sell higher levels. However, day trader advise could remain different. Bank stocks are still suspect and if weakness resumes, short this sector first.

 

The indices have closed at the upper end of the intraday range as the bulls were able to offer support at lower levels during the session, aided by short covering on declines. The intraday range specified for the Nifty between the 4900 / 4775 has held as the Nifty trended largely within these levels, thereby validating our intraday levels. The coming session is likely to witness resistance at the 4965 levels on advances above which the 5050 maybe seen if the bears get squeezed ahead of expiry. Support is likely at the 4825 levels. The bullish pivot for the session is likely at the 4875 levels above which the Nifty must stay throughout the session. The bearish pivot is at the 4850 levels below which declines may occur. Traders must watch these levels for signs of trend determination in the coming session.

 

The daily candle chart of the Nifty shows a large bodied bullish "daki" candle after an indecisive spinning top on Friday - implying the return of the bulls, however temporary it maybe. Our expectations of the temporary bottom being fulfilled, we would like to see follow up buying support above the 4875 levels consistently on Tuesday. The Nifty sustaining below the 4850 levels may trigger a fresh bout of declines.

 

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Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

 

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bazaaredge.com Market Outlook Monday 22Aug11

As anticipated, the Indian market mirrored the steep fall seen across global markets with the BSE Sensex sinking by over 300 points and the NSE Nifty sinking below the 4850 mark. The sentiment for world equities and commodities weakened amid relentless concerns about slowing economic growth and fiscal stress in the western world (read USA and Europe). A downgrade of global economic growth by Morgan Stanley also seems to have spooked global markets. The Wall Street firm has warned that the US and Eurozone are close to a recession. It was also disappointed by policy action in the US and Europe amid worries about the worsening fiscal situation there.

 

For India too, the list of problems has swelled amid no sign of relief on the inflation front and the RBI persisting with its aggressive policy stance. An average monsoon, moderation in the economy, slowdown in key overseas markets and dismal progress in disinvestment has also increased the risk of higher-than-forecast fiscal deficit

 

At 6,300 everyone was talking about 7,000 levels and right now at 4,800 every one talks about 4,000. There is no element of surprise as at the end of every peak and bottom we see such mindset of market players.  During such time we tend to take help of Technical analysis and look at indicators and calculate Fibonacci ratios. All these indicate that a major bottom is round the corner. Indicators are at highly over sold zone. Fibonacci calculations indicate a major support at 4,750-4,800 levels. There may be some accesses but anyone buying at this level for 6 months to 12 months will certainly make a decent gain.

 

We suggest following stocks for investment: - Tata Steel, Tata motors, Infosys, TCS, Wipro, Ranbaxy and Sun pharma. If anyone wants to take a safer bet and avoid individual stocks, I strongly suggest buying Nifty basket in the form of ETF units. It will distribute the risk factor to 50 stocks and will adjust your portfolio by reducing underperformers and increasing out performers

 

For the next week, focus would be on the global markets. The Federal Reserve meets at Jackson Hole and the outcome may give some clarity on how does it plan to stimulate the US economy. Closer home, there is uncertainty on the passage of various reforms, despite the fact that, the Government has lined up a few of them for the monsoon session. Consequently, market expectations are low regarding passage of key reforms in the immediate term. The markets are grappling with several issues (domestic and global). However, investors must consider that even as the momentum is negative and volatility is high, valuations are turning reasonable for long-term investing.

 

`Nifty fortunately closed well above the day low. Technically the stock is oversold in its daily and weekly charts while monthly charts are showing some more downtrend. Next we are going to see the August F&O expiry which will give some support to our markets. However 4,800-4,786 remains a crucial level of Nifty

 

There is no clarity on European crises as well as US Debt issues and also back home there is a major political mess going around. These factors are directly affecting Global markets where it`s more of uncertainty that`s creating panic across the globe. Investors are still thinking ``How long should I hold my stocks. 

 

Major supports in the market from the current levels are placed at 4,770-4,720 levels. Immediate resistance comes around 5,120 levels.

 

 

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Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

 

 

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bazaaredge.com Market Outlook 19th Aug11

`Markets are expected to open with gap down opening following global market route. Fears over global growth prospects and Europe`s ongoing sovereign debt woes weigh on equity markets across the world,

 

The market edged lower in early trade on weak Asian shares. A bout of volatility

was witnessed in mid-morning trade as the Sensex cut losses soon after a

sudden slide. The market extended losses to hit fresh intraday low in early

afternoon trade. Bank stocks declined on concerns that higher interest rates

may crimp loan growth. Software pivotals were under pressure on concerns that

a likely economic slowdown in the US and Europe will hit technology spending

by overseas clients. A bout of volatility was witnessed as the market weakened

once again after trimming losses in afternoon trade. The market extended

losses in mid-afternoon trade. The market slumped in late trade. The Sensex

and Nifty closed with gains of 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively. However, the

mid-cap and small-cap indices ended with losses of 0.9% and 1.6%,

respectively. Among the front runners, DLF, Hero Motoco, Hindustan Unilever

and Jaiprakash Asso. gained 1–3%, while ICICI Bank, Wipro, SBI, Sterlite Inds

and TCS lost 4–5%. Among mid caps, Kwality Dairy, Network18 Media, GTL,

Usha Martin and India Sec gained 3–8%, while S Kumar Nation, Arvind, HCL

Infosystems, Educomp Sol and Alok Inds lost 9–10%.

 

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 16,607/4,985 levels. If NIFTY trades

above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a

further rally up to 16,780 – 17,090/5,038 – 5,131 levels. However, if NIFTY

trades below 16,607/4,985 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may

correct up to 16,296 – 16,123/4,891 – 4,839 levels.

 

The indices have closed at the lower end of the intraday range as the bulls were unable to offer support at higher levels during the session. The intraday range specified for the Nifty between the 5125 / 4960 was breached as the Nifty tested the 4932 levels, thereby exceeding our intraday levels on the downsides. The coming session is likely to witness resistance at the 5000 levels on advances. Support is likely at the 4850 levels, below which the 4725 maybe seen. The wide range is due to the high base effect of Thursdays session. The bullish pivot for the session is likely at the 4995 levels above which the Nifty must stay throughout the session. The bearish pivot is at the 4975 levels below which declines may occur. Traders must watch these levels for signs of trend determination in the coming session.

 

The daily candle chart of the Nifty shows a large bodied bearish "daki" candle which has bearish implications. The global heat is likely to negatively impact domestic sentiments, with the weekend factor adding grist to the already exacerbated situation. For the bulls to overcome the weakness, it is important that the Nifty stays above the 4995 levels intraday with higher volumes and open interest expansion. The Nifty sustaining below the 4975 levels may trigger a fresh bout of declines.

 

 

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Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

 

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Bazaaredge.com Market Outlook 17Aug11

The key domestic indices are likely to witness a subdued opening, as most the major Asian indices were trading on a mixed note amidst ongoing issues in the euro zone. Today, Nifty will face a resistance near 5,050 level and will have a support near the 5,000 mark

 

The indices have closed at the lower end of the intraday range as the bulls were unable to offer support at higher levels during the session. The intraday range specified for the Nifty between the 5165 / 5000 held as the Nifty kept within these levels, thereby validating our intraday levels. The coming session is likely to witness resistance at the 5100 levels on advances. Support is likely at the 4950 levels. The bullish pivot for the session is likely at the 5095 levels above which the Nifty must stay throughout the session. The bearish pivot is at the 5060 levels below which declines may occur. Traders must watch these levels for signs of trend determination in the coming session.

 

The daily candle chart of the Nifty shows a larger bodied bearish candle. The poor volumes are a tiny ray of hope but cannot be banked upon as a conclusive signal as markets are known to drift on poor volumes for extended periods of time. For the bulls to overcome the weakness, it is important that the Nifty stays above the 5090 levels intraday with higher volumes and open interest expansion. The Nifty sustaining below the 5060 levels may trigger a fresh bout of declines.

 

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Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

 

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Bazaaredge.com Weekly Market Outlook 16Aug11

Weekly Market Outlook 16Aug11

 

Technically the level of 5,240/17,770 will act as a major hurdle for the market.  On the lower side 5,050-5030 will act as a major support for the market and dismissal of the 5,000 may result into quick sell off to 4800 minimum and maximum to 4700 levels.  Closing above the level of 5,250 can take index to the level of 5400. US markets especially S&P may fall by 10% more from current levels where it has proper and strong support (1,090/1,060).  If that happens then we may expect 4,800 achievable on Nifty in near term.  On the higher side 5,350/5,400 will act as a biggest hurdle for the market for next few weeks or even months. Long term investors can certainly look for index stocks to buy around 4,800 levels. Outcome of Industrial numbers in Europe and US will decide further course of the markets.

 

Gold has moved above USD 1,700 on back of US debt crisis. Crude slipped below USD 90 which is indeed positive for the markets. Ongoing parliament session will keep the hopes alive for the Reforms. Interest rates are close to peak. All these factors can bring optimism back in Indian Market

 

Fund flows in the Indian markets have not been that bad considering the intensity of the selloff. The Government too is trying its best to address the governance deficit. But, inflation continues to be a big headache with food inflation flaring in end-July. On the macro-economic front, exports continue to be robust but might moderate in the coming months owing to slowdown in the US and Europe. Tax collections and credit growth have also help up quite well amid signs of moderation in industrial output.  Meeting the fiscal deficit target (4.6% of GDP) will take some doing as GDP projections have been scaled down and disinvestment is in a limbo.

 

Very clearly, the Indian markets would continue to take cues from the global markets. After the selloff in the current week, a relief rally cannot be ruled out. However, as we have been consistently indicating in earlier notes that inflation needs to peak out for markets to stage a durable up move. Nevertheless, the recent sell-off has made valuations reasonable for long-term investing. At this juncture, the markets are also expecting that the government would move decisively on reforms (land acquisition, FDI in retail and GST). Any concrete action on reforms would be taken positively by the markets.

 

We are positive on consumer, media, private sector banking and large IT stocks. We remain selective on the capital goods and infrastructure sector, logistics and oil and gas. We remain negative on cement and auto.

 

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Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

 

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Bazaaredge.com Stock Market Outlook 12Aug11

If above 17,208, Sensex may test 17,350

 

Markets opened with a neutral bias and traded in a narrow range of 17,208 to 17,012 / 5,185 to 5,121. On the daily chart, we are observing a candlestick pattern which resembles a ``Doji``. If indices manage to trade convincingly above 17,208/ 5,185 level then they may test 17,350 / 5,230 level,``

 

``The above mentioned pattern will have its bearish implication only if indices trade below yesterday`s low of 17,012 / 5,121 level.  The activation of this pattern can attract some selling pressure which can drag indices to the lower levels 16,900  -  16640 / 5,100  - 5,010

 

The indices have closed at the lower end of the intraday range as the bulls were unable to offer support at higher levels during the session. The intraday range specified for the Nifty between the 5200 / 5110 held as the Nifty kept within these levels, thereby validating our intraday levels. The coming session is likely to witness resistance at the 5175 levels on advances above which the 5225 maybe tested. Support is likely at the 5100 levels below which the 5050 maybe tested. The bullish pivot for the session is likely at the 5165 levels above which the Nifty must stay throughout the session. The bearish pivot is at the 5140 levels below which declines may occur. Traders must watch these levels for signs of trend determination in the coming session.

 

The daily candle chart of the Nifty shows a gap down inverted hammer candle, which was filled intraday and the 5100 - 5110 area holding up for now. As long as the bulls keep the Nifty above the 5165 threshold with higher volumes and open interest expansion, the bears will be forced to cover shorts. The Nifty sustaining below the 5140 levels may trigger a fresh bout of declines. Being a long weekend, buying conviction is expected to taper off towards the end of the session.

 

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Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

 

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Bazaaredge.com Stock Market Outlook 11Aug11

Nifty has resistance between 5,255-5,270

 

`At last positive global sentiments gave a feel of relief in yesterday`s session though spot index unable to maintain its tops at the close. For the upcoming sessions we believe sentiments remain gloomy though possibility of bounce back couldn`t be rule out however we believe 5,255-5,270 could be the key resistance zone

 

On the flip side any negative outcome from global markets may dampens the traders sentiments and we might see below 4,900 level in remaining sessions of the week though next level of support could be around 4,745-4,760 where we might see some suggestive buying.

 

The optimism at Wall Street was largely injected at Dalal Street, which took the key barometer gauges both on BSE and NSE higher above their physiological level. The 30 scrip sensitive index on BSE-Sensex commencing the trade at 17,244.71, shut shop above the 17,100 level with gain of over 250 points.

 

Meanwhile, the 50 share index on NSE-Nifty gaining over 50 points ended over 5,100 level. However, the broader indices doing well outperformed the larger counterparts and went home with gains of over 2%. The market breadth on the BSE ended positive; advances and declining stocks were in a ratio of 2071:806 while 108 scrips remained unchanged.

 

The indices have closed at the median point of the intraday range as the bulls were able to offer support at lower levels during the session, aided by bear covering. The intraday range specified for the Nifty between the 5200 / 5000 held as the Nifty retraced from the 5198 levels, thereby validating our intraday levels. The coming session is likely to witness resistance at the 5200 levels on advances above which the 5255 maybe tested. Support is likely at the 5110 levels below which the 5050 maybe tested. The bullish pivot for the session is likely at the 5175 levels above which the Nifty must stay throughout the session. The bearish pivot is at the 5150 levels below which declines may occur. Traders must watch these levels for signs of trend determination in the coming session.

 

The daily candle chart of the Nifty shows a gap up candle, which was filled intraday and the 5100 - 5110 area (the point of conflict between bulls and bears advocated recently) overcome for now. As long as the bulls keep the Nifty above the 5175 threshold, the bears will be forced to cover shorts. The anticipated pullback occurred, though the volumes were lower than optimal. That makes the sustainability of the upthrust suspect. The Nifty sustaining below the 5150 levels may trigger a fresh bout of declines.

 

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Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

 

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Bazaaredge.com Market Outlook 10Aug11

The indices have closed in the upper end of the intraday range as the bulls were able to offer support at lower levels during the session. The intraday range specified for the Nifty between the 5175 / 4875 held as the Nifty kept within these levels, thereby validating our intraday levels. The coming session is likely to witness resistance at the 5200 levels on advances. Support is likely at the 5000 levels. The wide range is due to the high base effect of Tuesdays range. The bullish pivot for the session is likely at the 5090 levels above which the Nifty must stay throughout the session. The bearish pivot is at the 5025 levels below which declines may occur. Traders must watch these levels for signs of trend determination in the coming session.

 

The daily candle chart of the Nifty shows a big gap down candle, which was filled intraday and the 5100 - 5110 area (the point of conflict between bulls and bears advocated yesterday) was breached briefly. As long as the bulls keep the Nifty above this threshold, the bears will be forced to cover shorts for now. The possibility of a pullback maybe fair, though sustainability beyond a brief period maybe suspect - for now. The downward sloping trendline remains an impregnable resistance for the bulls to overcome.  The Nifty sustaining below the 5025 levels may trigger a fresh bout of declines.

 

Technically the market is over stretched and has the potential to bounce back and so if the market sees a dip then that dip could be bought a tight bounce back…strong supports is around 5,000 and that is exactly how the market unfolded though it closed negative…technically nothing changes and I would say we could see some back as 5,000 seems to be a psychological support,``

 

``The support for the Nifty is at 5,000-4,778 and resistance at 5,250-5,340. For Sensex, the crucial support on the downside is at 16,620-15,986 and resistance at 17,500-17,737,``

 

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Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

 

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Bazaaredge.com Market Outlook 09Aug11

Technically, the market is open both side and big moves would give a trading opportunity either way, the market traded both ways as expected… It opened with a massive gap down and it tried climbing up but somehow has stayed negative… The market is over stretched and has the potential to bounce back and so if the market sees a dip then that dip could be bought a tight bounce back… Strong supports is around 5,000,``

 

``The support for the Nifty is at 5,000-4,778 and resistance at 5,250-5,340. For Sensex, the crucial support on the downside is at 16,620-15,986 and resistance at 17,500-17,737,``

 

The indices have closed in the lower end of the intraday range as the bulls were unable to offer support at lower levels during the session, barring some bear covering. The intraday range specified for the Nifty between the 5275 / 5050 held as the Nifty bounced from the 5054 levels, thereby validating our intraday levels. The coming session is likely to witness resistance at the 5175 levels on advances. Support is likely at the 5025 levels below which the 4875 maybe seen. The wide range is due to the high base effect of Mondays range. The bullish pivot for the session is likely at the 5150 levels above which the Nifty must stay throughout the session. The bearish pivot is at the 5100 levels below which declines may occur. Traders must watch these levels for signs of trend determination in the coming session.

 

The daily candle chart of the Nifty shows a big gap down candle, which was filled intraday but the 5100 - 5110 area will now become the point of conflict between bulls and bears. As advocated yesterday, It took little selling to derail any attempted upthrust and therefore bulls are on the ropes. The downward sloping trendline is now an impregnable resistance for the bulls to overcome.  The Nifty (spot) must stay above the 5150 levels sustainably with volumes and open interest expansion to rally intraday on Tuesday. On the flip side, sustaining below the 5100 levels may trigger a fresh bout of declines.

 

The market internals indicate a lower turnover due to the weakness. The number of trades were lower and the average ticket size per trade was lower, which indicates lack of participation. The capitalisation of the market was lower in line with a bearish session. The put call ratios indicate the bears ramping up their shorts even on declines.

 

The trend deciding level for the day is 16,999/5,126 levels. If NIFTY trades

above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a

further rally up to 17,239–17,488/5,197–5,276 levels. However, if NIFTY

trades below 16,999/5,126 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may

correct up to 16,750–16,511/ 5,047–4,975 levels.

 

 

 

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Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

 

 

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Bazaaredge.com Weekly Stock Market Outlook 08Aug11

The week witnessed a sharp decline along expected lines as the overseas cues turned negative. The combined exchange weekly advance decline ratio was negative as the figures stood at 6982 : 14700. The capitalisation of the same on a commensurate basis was also negative as the figures stood at Rs 18249 Crs : Rs 50821 Crs. The NSE lost  Rs 262465 Crs in market capitalisation on a w-o-w basis. In terms of sectoral performance, the decline was led by the technology space, followed by the Bank Nifty and the Midcap Index in that order. Of the entire weekly turnover initiated during the week, the entire trade was initiated on down tick days. That underscores the underlying weakness in the markets.

 

The overseas investors were net sellers to the extent of Rs 873.3 Crs and that saw the INR close at the 44.73 levels vis-a-vis the USD (previous week 44.18 levels). The US headline indices saw the steepest fall in the benchmarks this year even as the senate reached the debt deal. With the DJIA and the Nasdaq hitting calendar year lows, the upsides are likely to be calibrated The UK FTSE 100 witnessed a steeper relative fall as the bulls surrendered their positions in a state of panic. In the Asian region, the decline was led by Hong Kong, followed by Singapore, Japan and China brought up the rear. The overseas cues are outright negative and barring corrective bounces, the domestic markets are likely to remain under pressure.

 

Technically, the domestic markets have completed the head & shoulder formation by closing below the 5400 and the required 2 % confirmatory additional decline as well. The tone and tenor of the markets is set as downwards. The weekly range advocated for the Nifty between the 5650 / 5300 levels have been violated as the benchmark tested the levels. The coming week is likely to witness a range of 5500 on the upside as long as the Nifty stays above the bullish pivot at the 5375 mark. In case of declines, the Nifty is likely to test a level of 4850 as long as the bears keep the Nifty below the 5275 levels. Barring technical pullbacks (which invariably terminate without a warning), the outlook is cautious. Capital protection must be a traders priority.

 

The indices have closed in the upper end of the intraday range as the bulls were able to offer feeble support at lower levels during the session, aided by bear covering. The intraday range specified for the Nifty between the 5375 / 5210 overshot as the Nifty tested the 5116 levels, thereby exceeding our intraday levels on the downside. The coming session is likely to witness resistance at the 5275 levels on advances. Support is likely at the 5130 levels below which the 5050 maybe seen. The wide range is due to the high base effect of Fridays range. The bullish pivot for the session is likely at the 5200 levels above which the Nifty must stay throughout the session. The bearish pivot is at the 5150 levels below which declines may occur. Traders must watch these levels for signs of trend determination in the coming session.

 

The daily candle chart of the Nifty shows a big gap down doji candle, which indicates resistance by the bulls to further declines below the 5100 area. Follow up buying above the 5200 levels (bullish pivot for the day) with higher volumes and open interest as a strict pre-requisite will see a possible buildup of some gains, though sustain ability in the near term is suspect as overhead supply can spike gains. It will take little selling to derail any attempted upthrust and therefore bulls are advised to desist from leveraged aggressive buying. The downward sloping trendline is now an unimpeachable resistance for the bulls to overcome.  The Nifty (spot) must stay above the 5200 levels sustainably with volumes and open interest expansion to rally intraday on Monday. On the flip side, sustaining below the 5150 levels may trigger a fresh bout of declines.

 

 

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Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

 

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Bazaaredge.com Stock Market Outlook 08Aug11

 

 

Nifty today came down towards 5,116 and recovered from there and closed above 5,200. We can`t say that it`s time to invest back all our funds. But investors can start buying in small quantities in fundamentally strong companies which are at attractive valuations. Nifty still hasn`t reversed completely and so short term players should have their positions properly hedged. If Nifty moves below 5,116, then further selling can be seen towards 4,800 levels in the near term.``

 

 

``In coming days Nifty can bounce back to 5,330 levels and 5,460 act as major resistance in future but the overall trend remains bearish as major supports of 5,180 were broken in Intraday. Any rise can be used to go short in the markets. Immediate supports come around 5,033-4,890.``

 

 

 

``True to the trend, Nifty witnessed selling pressure, slipping below all the intermediate support levels. However the magnitude of the correction and the volumes associated with it took everybody by surprise. U.S market will have important announcement on Friday night pertaining to nonfarm payrolls data and unemployment rate. Any significant development related to above news in the overseas markets is likely to have effect on our market as well. Nifty VIX(Volatility Index) has witnessed a significant increase, hence a cautious stance is advised since the market movements are expected to be volatile.`` 

 

 

 

``The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to negative note tomorrow. Trade short in Nifty below 5,230 levels, with stop loss at 5,250, targeting 5,180-5,150 levels.``

 

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Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

 

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