Market Updates 02 May11

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Market Outlook »

 

Nifty is expected to move in the broad range of 5600-6000

Traders turned cautious due to shrinking profitability and possible interest rate increase next week during the monetary policy review.The Nifty is expected to move in the broad range of 5600-6000 as maximum open interest was seen building in these strike prices. However, scepticism was seen as traders sold 5600 put optionsaggressively. Bank Nifty may slide to 11300 levels in the short term, from 11,684

 

Technical Calls »

Buy PFC 230.9 stoploss 215 target 235

Buy MALWA COTTON 51.6 stoploss 49 target 55

Buy SHASUN 81.75 stoploss 80 target 85

 

Momentum Calls »

Buy RSWM 170.00 Near term it may touch 180

Buy IDFC 149.20 Near term it may touch 175

Buy Sintex 174.00 Near term it may touch 200

 

Investment »

Vesuvius India 

VIL is doubling its capacity at its Kolkata location, which is expected to be completed by May 2011. With this expansion the company will be able to deliver800 pieces of refractory products per day i.e. double the 

 

Investment »

Exide Industries 

We expect the share of replacement to go up gradually to ~56%, once the capacity ramps up in the automotive segment. Automotive four wheeler battery capacity, currently, stands at 9.6m units, which is likely to be 

 

Corporate Report » 
Coromandel International 

Best agri play in India Stock corrected sharply post 4Q and is now trading at FY12 P/E of 12.9x, with underlying ROEs of 30% and a net cash balance sheet. Though near term this stock may behave like a fertiliser company....

 

Analyst Corner » 
Sterlite Industries 

Hindustan Zinc (HZ), Sterlite Industries’ subsidiary, reported 4QFY11 earnings ahead of estimates: HZL reported 4QFY11 EBITDA at Rs19.69bn (+27% y/y; +31% q/q), well ahead of both estimates (Rs15.6bn) and Bloomberg consensus (Rs16.1bn).

 

Focus

Education 

We expect Career Point to post Rs197mn revenue in Q4FY11 on the back of an increase in studentenrollment. We expect the operating margin to be 39% backed by better realization. We expect net profit to be at Rs72mn on the back of strong top-line growth. Since the company has IPO proceeds in its books which are unutilized, there is good probability of outperformance to our estimates.

 

 

Hindsights

Construction 

We expect our construction universe to clock 20% YoY revenue growth in Q4. Q4 revenue is expected to contribute 34% of FY11 revenue. We believe this is achievable as Q4 is a seasonally strong quarter and the lower-than-expected 9MFY11 performance that resulted in higher execution backlog gives comfort. However, order-intake disappointed:

 

 

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Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

Bazaaredge Market Updates 27th April11

 

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Market Outlook »

 

Nifty is expected to open in a constricted range.

Trade is volatile because we have expiry coming up. Investors are cautious ahead of RBI policy next week. Therefore, it would be safe to avoid long position below the support levels of 19,535 and 5,872.The Critical range for upside is at 5,895 and on crossing this mark, on the upside the Nifty may face resistance at 5,918.

 

Technical Calls »

Buy EMCO LTD 69.85 stoploss 62 target 75

Buy LANCOINFRA 43.3 stoploss 40 target 50

Buy TIMEX 39.85 stoploss 35 target 45

More

 

Momentum Calls »

Buy Muthoot 186.30 Near term it may touch 195

Buy Falcon Tyres 150.85 Near term it may touch 160

Buy Shalimar 299.95 Near term it may touch 310

More

 

Investment »

Pidilite Industries 

Of the three businesses that are part of the consumer and bazaars pie (78% of revenues), the construction chemicals business, with brands such as Dr Fixit and Roff (~20% of revenues), has registered over 25% 

 

Investment »

BGR Energy 

Strong execution continues in 3Q11: BGR’s PAT at Rs876mn came 30% and 25% ahead of our and consensus estimates respectively on account of stronger execution, higher other income and lower tax 

 

Corporate Report » 
Yes Bank 

Higher deposit rates and faster branch addition led to higher deposit growth of 71% YoY to | 45940 crore (up 16% QoQ). The loan book grew 55% YoY to | 34363 crore, thus moderating the CD ratio to 75%......

 

Analyst Corner » 
REC 

While the demand environment is likely to remain healthy, we expect loan growth to moderate from historical levels due to the high base. NIMs too are likely to come off from peaks, though higher ECB borrowings and tax-free bonds would provide some support.

 

Focus

Power Sector 

PTC’s volumes to grow 48% YoY: As the growth in short-term power trading volumes was strong in Q4, we expect PTC’s volumes to grow 48% YoY and to 4.7BU. On a QoQ basis though, volumes are expectedto register a decline of 18% due to negligible contribution from cross-border power plants and other hydel capacities

 

Hindsights

Power Financing NBFCs 

While we remain positive on demand in the medium term as outstanding sanctions are robust, we expect credit growth to moderate due to the higher base. Asset quality is healthy for now, but the concentrated loan profile, absence of buffers on the balance sheet, mounting losses of state electricity boards (SEB)

 

 

Hot Delivery based Short term Investment :

Attractive Stock to Buy quoting below 10 P/E

Small & Midcap Attractive Stocks

 

For more detailed reports visit  at http://www.bazaaredge.com

 

Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

Bazaaredge Market Updates 26th April11

 

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Market Outlook »

 

Nifty poised at crossroad

The market remained directionless and moved in a narrow range following closure of leading global stock marketsand banks on account of 'Easter Monday. Technically, the domestic markets have closed with gains on a w-o-w basis but the lower bottom and top remains on the weekly charts. Breaking out above the recent top at the 5945 levels will swing the mood towards the bull camp. .

 

Technical Calls »

Buy BOC (I) 311.15 stoploss 300 target 320

Buy L&T 1721.5 stoploss 1700 target 1750

Buy REDINGTON 85.3 stoploss 80 target 100

More

 

Momentum Calls »

Buy Aknit Ind. 30.00 Near term it may touch 40

Buy Indus Fila 24.35 Near term it may touch 30

Buy Raj Oil 24.00 Near term it may touch 30

More

 

Investment »

Pidilite Industries 

Of the three businesses that are part of the consumer and bazaars pie (78% of revenues), the construction chemicals business, with brands such as Dr Fixit and Roff (~20% of revenues), has registered over 25% 

 

Investment »

BGR Energy 

Strong execution continues in 3Q11: BGR’s PAT at Rs876mn came 30% and 25% ahead of our and consensus estimates respectively on account of stronger execution, higher other income and lower tax 

 

Corporate Report » 
Yes Bank 

Higher deposit rates and faster branch addition led to higher deposit growth of 71% YoY to | 45940 crore (up 16% QoQ). The loan book grew 55% YoY to | 34363 crore, thus moderating the CD ratio to 75%......

 

Analyst Corner » 
REC 

While the demand environment is likely to remain healthy, we expect loan growth to moderate from historical levels due to the high base. NIMs too are likely to come off from peaks, though higher ECB borrowings and tax-free bonds would provide some support.

 

Focus

Power Sector 

PTC’s volumes to grow 48% YoY: As the growth in short-term power trading volumes was strong in Q4, we expect PTC’s volumes to grow 48% YoY and to 4.7BU. On a QoQ basis though, volumes are expectedto register a decline of 18% due to negligible contribution from cross-border power plants and other hydel capacities

 

Hindsights

Power Financing NBFCs 

While we remain positive on demand in the medium term as outstanding sanctions are robust, we expect credit growth to moderate due to the higher base. Asset quality is healthy for now, but the concentrated loan profile, absence of buffers on the balance sheet, mounting losses of state electricity boards (SEB

 

 

Hot Delivery based Short term Investment :

Attractive Stock to Buy quoting below 10 P/E

Small & Midcap Attractive Stocks

 

For more detailed reports visit  at http://www.bazaaredge.com

 

Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

Bazaaredge Market Updates 25th April11

 

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Market Outlook »

 

Nifty could head towards 6000 and can further rise till 6150 levels

In the past two trading sessions, over 20 lakh puts have been written at 5800 and over 40 lakh Puts at 5900 .We observed that put writers were highly active at 5800 and 5900 put strikes hinting at their bullish stance.Going forward, the Nifty is expected to face resistance in the range 5900~5950. However, any close above can trigger short squeeze resulting in the Nifty crossing 6100. .

 

Technical Calls »

Buy PARABOLIC cmp 51.2 stoploss 50 target 55

Buy TCI FINANCE cmp 66.05 stoploss 60 target 70

Buy BILPOWER cmp 118.5 stoploss 115 target 125

More

 

] Momentum Calls »

Buy HOEC 217.00 Near term it may touch 225

Buy Garware 70.00 Near term it may touch 80

Buy Timken 213.00 Near term it may touch 220

More

 

Investment »

Honda Siel Products 

HSPP is the undisputed market leader when it comes to portable generators. This has created a dual advantage. First, it provides a solid network for launching other products as well as address the 

 

Investment »

eClerx 

eClerx has been the best performing India listed IT-BPO stock over the last 3 years giving a cumulative return of 277%.This has been driven by revenue growth, margins and returns that have been the best in 

 

Corporate Report » 
Zee Entertainment 

Sports business and ad revenue surprised. Zee’s 4QFY11 operating revenue of Rs7.98bn improved 6% QoQ and 23% YoY on a positive surprise in its sports business, and was 13% ahead of expectations.....

 

Analyst Corner » 
Sesa Goa 

If Sesa acquires 20% from open offer (at Rs355/share): Sesa Goa will own 30.4% stake in Cairn India i.e., 10.4% stake acquired at Rs331/share from Petronas and 20% stake acquired at Rs355/share from the open offer.

 

Focus

Telecom 

Traffic growth continues to be strong; slight pressure on tariffs: We expect RPM decline of 2-3% QoQ v/s 1-2% decline for GSM incumbents in the last two quarters and an average decline of 7-8% QoQ in the preceding three quarters. Subscriber additions back to normalized level of 19m-20m: Industry subscriber netadds were 19m-20m in January-February 2011 v/s an average of 21.5m in 3QFY11, mainly due to decline in subscriber additions for BSNL, Uninor, Videocon, and S Tel. MNP update

 

Hindsights

Q4FY11 Earnings Preview 

hile revenue growth will remain buoyant driven by seasonal Q-O-Q vehicle sales growth (MHCV 36%, LCV 12%, PC 15%, 2W 2%), high commodity prices(Crude 17%, steel 10%, lead 9%, rubber 16% Q-O-Q) will impact sector wide margins despite product price increases.We expect the Net Interest Margins (NIMs) to have peaked in Q3FY11 and there will be substantial pressure on the same in Q4FY11E due to hardeninginterest rate environment.

 

 

For more detailed reports visit  at http://www.bazaaredge.com

 

Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report

Bazaaredge Market Updates 21th April11

 

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Market Outlook »

 

Nifty must stay above the 5840 levels sustainably with volumes....

Overall market breadth was quite strong today.It was mostly a Large-Cap led rally but the non-index counters also managed to join the party. The market could gain slightly more if the global rally prevails. But one has to be careful at this stage in picking the right stocks.The RBI (Reserve Bank of India) policy is the next big event to watch out for.The coming session is likely to witness a resistance at the 5875 levels on advances above which the 5900

 

Technical Calls »

Buy FINOLEX INDS cmp 104.8 stoploss 100 target 110

Buy SAREGAMA cmp 82.1 stoploss 80 target 90

Buy BRIGADE cmp 99.15 stoploss 90 target 110

More

 

Momentum Calls »

Buy FACT 41.00 Near term it may touch 45

Buy BILPOWER 114.85 Near term it may touch 120

Buy Twilight Litica 62.00 Near term it may touch 70

More

 

Investment »

Anant Raj Ind 

The Golf Course Road project, acquired in FY11 is expected to contribute 30-50% of sales over FY12-14, and will be the key medium term value driver. While ARIL's net debt jumped sharply in FY11 to Rs8.8b...

 

Investment »

Hindustan Dorr-Oliver 

With an orderbook of ~Rs15 bn, HDOR is strategically placed to benefit from the robust industrial production and increasing capex in the core industries in India..

 

Corporate Report » 
Dish TV 

TRAI, has set a cap on wholesale tariff rates paid by DTH operators to C&S broadcasters at 42% of ‘analog’ cable versus 50% previously. This is moderately positive for Dish TV as ~20% of its content deals will be reprised downwards.....

 

Analyst Corner » 
IndusInd Bank 

The focus on the next phase of growth appears to be on earnings quality over growth. Management was very clear in the analyst meet that the current ROA levels of 1.6% are not in line with long-term objectives.

 

Focus

Micro finance 

Collections in the state of Andhra Pradesh continue to be dismal at 20-30% levels. If this continues for a couple of more quarters, we expect there will be substantial write-offs in the offing and things don’t seem to be improving much. AP alone accounts for 30-35% of the MFI portfolio.....

 

Hindsights

Metals 

CIS HRC export price declines to $660/MT: As per the trade press (MB, SBB, Bloomberg), Ukrainian HRC export prices saw a sharp decline this week to $660/MT after falling to $700/MT earlier this week. This implies imported HRC price of Rs33.5k/MT, 6% lower than current domestic prices. We see Indian mills needing to cut prices/give discounts, given the sharp decline.

 

 

Disclaimer : This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. And not soliciting any action based upon it. The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. We or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report